Data in this post is based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly fluctuations. The data covers the period from 2022 to August 2026. Table I lists the five largest dairy producing states. Overall, the U.S. is increasing milk production by 3% consistently in 2026 (Chart I and II). The five largest milk producing states (Table I) have increases in milk production ranging from 2% to 5%.
The increase in U.S. milk production is shown below (Chart I). It started in early 2025 and has accelerated through the latest data available. The increase in milk production is not showing any signs of slowing. Chart II shows the percent growth.
As shown in Table II, California is the largest contributor to the current U.S. increase in milk production (Chart III and IV). After many years of declining milk production in California, beginning in 2026 milk production has been steadily increasing. California made significant increases in milk per cow in 2026 (Chart V) causing the increase in milk.
Kansas has increased an amazing 88 million pounds in the last 12 months, a 23% increase. The huge percent increase in Kansas shows the impact of moving from a small milk producer to a major milk producer. The new dairy business in Kansas is centered in the High Planes area and has been developed with large dairy farms and new processing plants, resulting in low-cost production of dairy products.
Idaho has also expanded with large herds of dairy cows and new efficient processing. The increase in capacity peaked in early 2026 and is still increasing, but at a slower rate.
Texas has expanded in the Texas Panhandle with cost effective large farms and new processing plants. Texas has been increasing milk production for the last two years. The rate of increases is slowing.
South Dakota’s expansion is primarily built on new cheese processing plants. Like the other four plants covered above, the operating process involves new large farms and processing plants with all facilities geographically placed for low-cost production of dairy products.
Together the five states listed in Table II have annual increases in milk production that add to more than the total U.S. increase.
That means some states are decreasing milk production. The states of New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all showing steady decreases in milk production covering the entire span of the last five years.
California retains its title as largest dairy producing state with a 3% annual increase in milk production on the huge base of the current 3,444 million pounds of milk per month (Chart III). The growth from California alone is 110 million pounds of milk monthly which is 62% of the total U.S. milk production increase.
After a long decline in milk production, in mid 2025, milk production started increasing. The increase occurred primarily by an increased milk per cow of 3% annually (Chart V).
Table III covers the increase in milk per cow. Michigan has retained the highest productivity in milk per cow for years. The increases show very small percentage growth. The increase of the states with the highest milk per cow are all showing very slow growth.
Other states with high milk per cow are listed in Table III.
The state of Michigan (Chart VI) hit the record with for a 12-month average volume of 2345 pounds per cow per month. Colorado, New York, Wisconsin, and Idaho all increased milk per cow per month, but all the increases are small, 1% or less (Table III).
(California has the largest increase in milk production as covered above and is increasing milk per cow by 3% and have reached a level of 2012 pounds per cow per month, but they are still well below the leaders covered in Table III.)
There are no signs of a slowdown in the expanding U.S. production of milk. The rate of increase of 3% is well above any domestic needs. Exports will have to grow. The new farms and milk processers will continue to increase and smaller operations will decline. The dairy business is rapidly changing!
