The prior post covered where U.S. exports of cheese and butter are going. Production of both cheese and butter have increased and exceed U.S. consumption. Exports are needed to balance production and sales.
This post will dig a little deeper into the cheese exports to test the long-term stability of these exports. Mexico and Canada have the lowest shipping expenses. More distant destinations for major shipments include South Korea, Japan, and Australia.
Shipment to Mexico and Canada have minimal transportation cost and will be covered first. The exports to South Korea, Japan, and Australia are covered later in this post. Consumption of cheese is much lower for South Korea and Japan compared to the U.S.
Table I at the bottom of this post lists the data used in this analysis of cheese exports.
CHEESE EXPORTS TO MEXICO – 178 MILLION POUNDS YTD 2026
Cheese is by far the largest dairy export. In the first four months of 2026, 34% of U.S. cheese exports have gone to Mexico. Table I below shows the amount of Mexican domestic consumption, which is approximately 1460 million pounds per year. Mexican production of cheese is 1060 million pounds annually which requires imports of approximately 400 million pounds. In the first four months of 2026, 178 million pounds of cheese were exported from the U.S. to Mexico. If the current rate of exports continues, the full year would be 534 pounds of cheese exported from the U.S. to Mexico. That is more than is needed. Considering that some imports of cheese will come from other countries, the current pace of U.S. cheese exports to Mexico cannot be sustained.
Exports of cheese to Canada represent only approximately 1% of the total Canadian consumption. The Exports are long standing and will continue.
South Korea makes approximately 66 million pounds of cheese annually and consumes 396 million pounds. The rest must be imported. There are two competitors, the U.S. and New Zealand. The U.S. is on pace for approximately half of the cheese imports needed in South Korea.
New Zealand is much closer to South Korea than the U.S. The U.S. pace of exports can probably be maintained if prices are comparable to New Zealand prices.
CHEESE EXPORTS TO JAPAN – 45 MLIION POUNDS YTD 2026
Japan makes approximately 368 million pounds of cheese annually and consumes approximately 672 million pounds. New Zealand is the leading cheese supplier, and Australia is the second largest supplier. The U.S. is the third largest supplier.
The current rate of U.S. cheese exports can be maintained.
Australia consumes approximately 859 million pounds of cheese yearly. They produce approximately the same amount million of cheese. Australia then exports approximately 40% of the cheese produced. At the current rate of U.S. exports to Australia, that would cover approximately 10% of the needed cheese to match consumption. There is significant competition from New Zealand. Pricing and transportation leave little income for U.S. exports to Australia.
The exports represent 6% of U.S. exports so there is minimal impact from changes in these imports to Australia.
As covered in prior posts, the U.S. makes more cheese than can be consumed domestically. There has been an excellent effort to find a home for these excess cheeses and Mexico has been an economical choice. Until there is a balance between production and consumption in the U.S.,, this dilemma will continue.
To date, exporting the excess cheese to Mexico has been a good solution. However, there is a limit to how much can be absorbed by Mexico.
Data used in this analysis is shown in Table I below.
Exports of butter will be analyzed in a future post.
