Many prior posts covered the issue of “Too Many Cows and too Much Milk.” The biggest problem is that domestic consumption of cheese is not growing, but cheese production is growing. This post will cover changes in fluid milk consumption.
After many years of declining consumption, fluid milk consumption has now leveled out (Chart I). The real game changer is the milk products labeled as “Ultra Filtration” and “Lactose Free.” The two big players in this market are Coca Cola’s Fairlife products and Costco’s Kirkland 2% fat milk. While these products are more expensive, they have strong consumer appeal.
Chart II shows the growth in the category “Other” Milk. “Other” milk contains milk that does not fit in any of the other milk categories. Milk that is “lactose free” is in the “Other” category. In 2020 it made up only 1% of all milk. It is now over 6% of all milk. The growth in this category comes from Fairlife and Kirkland milk products which are Lactose Free. The current “Other” sales, based on 12-month moving averages is 220 million pounds per month.
The annual growth rate over 7 years is shown in Chart III. The rate of increase slowed in 2025. This was due to a lack of production capacity for “Fairlife” milk. Kirkland’s “Ultra Filtration” and “Lactose Free” milk did not join the “Other” category until 2026. In 2026, “Coca Cola” added significant production capacity for Fairlife milk and Costco added it’s 2% fat Kirkland product. Instead of slowing growth in sales, growth is not accelerating.
Without the growth in the “Other” category, fluid milk would still be declining (Chart IV).
The whole milk category (Chart V) has leveled out after declining in 2025.
The 2% category has declined significantly in 2026 (Chart VI). This is likely influenced by the new Kirkland 2% milk product which is in the “Other” catagory. If so, the decline will continue.
The decline in 1% fat milk has continued (Chart VII).
Fat free milk (Chart VIII) has become a very small category with only 162 million pounds per month.
Charts IX and X show the impact on “Conventual” and “Organic” milk. All the “Ultrafiltered” products are in the “Conventual” milk sales. The “Conventual” milk sales are up. Organic milk sales have leveled out.
Will fluid milk become a growth product? Will Costco add other products like whole milk to their Kirkland sales of “Ultrafiltration” milk?
Because all the “Lactose Free” products are grouped in the “Other” category, there are no details showing whole milk, 2% fat milk, etc. in that category.
