In 2021 and 2022, the price of most everything skyrocketed. Overall, consumer prices have increased by 22% between the start of 2021 through April 2025 (Chart I). Food products increased by 24% (Chart III). Although the rate of increase in prices has slowed, the impact of the 2021-22 price increases remains. Charts in this post show both the monthly changes between January 2021 and April 2025 and the percent annual increase by month in a slightly smaller sized chart for each section.
All data is based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
TOTAL CONSUMER PURCHASES
After a fast rise in 2021-22, Chart I shows a decrease in the rate of consumer price increases. As of April 2025, consumer prices were increasing annually by 2.3%, above the guideline of max 2% (Chart II). Importantly, every month has a positive increase adding to prices.
CONSUMER FOOD PURCHASES
In 2021 and 2022, food prices grew by 18%. Starting in 2023, the rate of price increases for food grew at an annual average of 2%. The annual percent increase in food prices is currently at 2.7% (Chart IV), above the max guideline of 2%. As mentioned above, over the period covered in this chart, food purchases have increased by 24%!
RETAIL CHEDDAR CHEESE PRICES
Retail prices of Cheddar cheese increased by 16% in 2022 (Chart V). Since then, the retail price of cheese has dropped (Chart VI). The April 2025 price is only 2.5% higher than the January 2021 price of cheese.
RETAIL FLUID MILK PRICES
Fluid milk prices increased by 26% from the low in 2021 to the high in 2022 (Chart VII). Since then, the prices have dropped a little but remain high. Between the start of 2021 and April 2025 fluid milk prices have increased by 17%.
Although fluid milk prices decreased in 2023, the increase restarted in mid 2024, and the current annual rate of increase is 5.3% (Chart VIII).
RETAIL BUTTER PRICES
Butter retail prices jumped by 48% in 2022 and has remained high since then (Chart IX). The current price is down only 4% from the record high retail price. The huge increase in 2022 continues to keep butter prices high.
In late 2023 and early 2024, retail butter prices declined but are again increasing annually and currently is increasing by 3.3% annually (Chart X).
SUMMARY
Cheese retail prices have reduced much of the 2022 price increases. Fluid milk and butter retail prices have retained the 2022 price increases and have maintained the prices since then.
Yes, grocery shopping has become much more expensive. The Fed will probably hold interest rates high until the annual price increases drop below 2%. Fluid milk and butter prices will hold for now, keeping butterfat prices high.
