Prior posts to this blog have followed fluid milk sales. Chart I lists total U.S. milk sales. The decline through 2023 has slowed and leveled out in 2024. Unfortunately, the decline in sales has returned. This post will cover what is happening through February 2026.
The 12-month moving averages show a record low for total U.S. milk sales (Chart I).
Charts II and III cover the sales of conventional milk and organic milk. Organic milk is 7% of total milk.
Conventional milk sales appear to be flat in 2024 and 2025 and continuing in the first two months of 2026. In the last two years, fluctuations have been very minimal.
Organic milk sales in Chart III shows a decline in sales of 3% in the last year. Perhaps Organic products have lost their sales appeal.
Whole milk sales (Chart IV) grew by 5% in 2022 through 2024. In 2025 and 2026, Whole milk sales declined by 2%. Some of this current loss may be coming from the increases in “Other” milk. “Other” milk will be covered later in this post.
Two percent milk has continued a long -term decline. Over the course of Chart V, 2% fat milk has declined by 25%. There is no sign of a slowdown in this trend.
Chart VI follows the sales of 1% fat milk. The speed of the decline has not slowed. The decline is 20% over the course of the chart. It may cause some stores to reduce the shelf space for 1% milk.
Fat free milk (not shown here) has declined to only 167 million pounds per month.
“Other” milk is just what it says, milk that does not fit other categories. In 2020 “Other” milk sales were negligible. Over the course of the chart, “Other” milk has increased by 454%. The sales of products with “Lactose Free” are in this category and have grown quickly. “fairlife” milk is the leader in this category.
When companies see rising sales, they often want to share in the wealth with a similar product. Typically, the new product on the market has a lower price to gain market share quicky. Costco is testing sales of a new milk product like “fairlife” in a few stores and probably will soon expand sales of the new Kirkland milk to other stores. Coca-Cola has just opened a new “fairlife” milk plant in New York. These actions will add to the “Other” volume.
“Other” milk volume is quickly reaching the volume of Organic milk. The trends show that by the end of 2026, the “Other” volume will exceed the Organic volume.
How important is this new product to milk consumption. Chart VIII below shows where milk sales would be going without the “Other” category. Comparing Chart I with total U.S. milk sales to Chart VIII without the sales of the “Other” category, “Other” milk is adding volume to total fluid milk.
The big question is how much the of new “Other” sales are adding to fluid milk sales volume and how much is cannibalizing sales of the remaining categories. It appears that the “Other” category is adding volume. Because milk in the “Other” category is selling at a significantly higher price, companies like Coca-Cola who owns fairlife and Costco who owns the Kirkland brand will strongly market their brands. Costco is including organic milk in the launch of the new Kirkland milk products.
