Exports have surged as covered in the prior post. Where are they going? This post will cover where the 2026 exports of cheese and butter are going. Are the exports sustainable? Tables I and III below list the Countries buying the most cheese and butter from the U.S.. Exports to Mexico and Canada are significant and have lower expenses for transportation.
.Table I lists the exports of cheese. Mexico represents 34% of the 2026 YTD exports. Table II shows the monthly growth of exports by country and Mexico again hits the top of the chart with a 41% growth between January 2026 and April 2026. Can this pace or level of cheese exports to Mexico be maintained?
South Korea received 13% of the cheese exports and the 2026 percent growth was 71% during the four months of 2026. Can this pace or level be maintained? The same can be said for Japan.
BUTTER EXPORTS
Butter exports have also been high as butter production is greater than domestic consumption. Canada and Mexico receive 52% of the exports. Exports to Canada show little growth. The exports to Mexico show 22% growth in 2026. That may not be sustainable considering the significant level of cheese already exported to Mexico (178 million pounds in the four months of 2026.)
To maintain some of these exports, the price must be better than the prices from competitor countries.
In 2026, exports of butter to Saudi Arabia increased by 68%. Low prices were likely for the exports to Saudi Arabia.
The prior post covered volatility in dairy. The volatility covered in this post is also very significant. This is especially true in Tables II and IV which show the growth in exports by country. Some exports by country were up (71%, 68%, 52%, 41%, etc.), and others were down (41%, 34%, 31%, etc.). All growth and shrinkage percents are the changes in the short term of four months.
A prior post on inflation in retail dairy products did not show huge inflation, but there was significant retail price volatility. As an example, butter fluctuated over five years from $3.64 per pound to $6.00 per pound and then down to $4.28 per pound. There are plant-based products that mimic real butter for under $3.00 per pound. When butter retail prices are high, consumers have an option.
Some recent reports indicate that nearly 50% of the dairy farms will have negative income in 2026. This will likely cause a collapse in the number of dairy farms especially the smaller farms. Survival with financial losses does not last long.
The USDA new pricing for components does not consider volatility and adequate producer profits. Volatility will continue.
