Is U.S. Milk Production Increasing?

Is milk production in the U.S. increasing?  In a word, “NO.”   The charts below show the annual changes in milk production for the U.S. and the five largest milk producing states; California, Wisconsin, Texas, Idaho, and New York.  These five states represent 54% of the U.S. milk production.  All charts are based on 12-month moving averages to reduce seasonal fluctuations.

Chart I shows the growth of milk production for the entire U.S.  There were some significant gains in 2020 and 2021 as the U.S. entered and exited from the difficulties of COVID and the policies implemented.  Since then, the production of milk has been stable, changing only slightly month to month.

The conclusion is that milk production in the U.S. is stable, not growing or shrinking.  There are changes in the levels of components in the milk that will be covered in an upcoming post.

Chart I – U.S., 18,839 thousand
Chart I – U.S., 18,839 Thousand Pounds per Month
California, Chart II, is the largest milk producing state with milk production currently averaging around 3.4 million pounds per month.  Over the last two years, milk production in California has been decreasing. Over the five years covered in this chart the decrease is 2%.  This represents 67 thousand pounds of milk per month.
Chart II – California, 3,380 thousand  Pounds per Month
Chart II – California, 3,380 thousand Pounds per Month
Wisconsin, Chart III, has a record of only increases in milk production over the last four years.  Milk production is growing at the rate of 1% annually which is 28 thousand pounds per month.
Chart III – Wisconsin, 2695 thousand  Pounds per Month
Chart III – Wisconsin, 2695 Thousand Pounds per Month
Over the five-year span in this post, with California decreasing milk production and Wisconsin increasing milk production, the gap between the two has decreased from 817 to 685 thousand pounds per month.  If this continues, it will take 25 years before Wisconsin will become the largest milk producing state.
Texas, Chart IV, milk production is seeing significant growth and has passed Idaho in milk production over the last two months. The growth in milk production is somewhat the result of decreasing milk production in New Mexico.
Chart IV – Texas, 1411 Thousand Pounds per Month
Chart III – Wisconsin, 2695 Thousand Pounds per Month
Idaho, Chart V, has seen their growth in milk production slowed to no growth and is presently stable at 1.4 million pounds per month.
Chart V – Idaho, 1399 thousand  Pounds per Month
Chart V – Idaho, 1399 Thousand Pounds per Month

The gap between Idaho and Texas over the five-year period covered in this post has finished in 2024 in favor of Texas with the monthly gap between Idaho and Texas changing from 188 to -12 thousand pounds per month.

New York state, Chart VI, has growth every month except one month over the five-year span.  The current growth is 1% per year.
Chart VI – New York, 1341 thousand  Pounds per Month
Chart VI – New York, 1341 Thousand Pounds per Month
SUMMARY

Three of the states in the top five, Wisconsin, Texas, and New York are showing growth in milk production.  Idaho has ceased increasing milk production and is stable.  California has continued to decrease milk production. The impact of these changes when combined with milk per cow and component levels will be covered in an upcoming post. 

The next post will cover pounds of milk per cow in detail. There are significant increases. Profitability for producers is very dependent on increasing milk per cow.

 

Other recent posts are available at this link, and older posts are available at this link.

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