The milk cow population in the U.S. has grown significantly in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 (Chart I). During this time the milk cow population has grown by 3%. As covered in prior posts, domestic consumption of most dairy products is not growing. The trend for increased milk cows is not showing any slowing. This has created a need to export U.S. dairy products. It is also keeping wholesale prices for dairy products low, which in turn keep producer prices low.
Below is a table of the states with the most growth in milk cows. Most of the states with increased cows are Northern states where the climate is good for cows. Many are also in locations not covered by Federal Order pricing.
There are no states that were significantly decreasing milk cows except the state of Washington, which is down 20,000 cows, a loss of 8%. Many new processing facilities have been built, but to date this has not resulted to decreasing existing processing facilities. The result is increased milk production.
The Texas cow count has increased by 7% in 2025 and 2026 YTD. In 2023 and 2024 milk cows were culled due to H5N1 influenza and drought. Texas has built new milk processing plants in 2024 and 2025. In 2026, the increase in cows has changed to a slow decrease.
Idaho has increased demand for producer milk with new or enlarged processing plants like Chobani and has also filled some of the milk losses in California. Idaho also has a climate that is excellent for milk cows and has favorable laws for agriculture. Idaho’s cow population has increased by 7% in 2025 and 2026 YTD.
Kansas milk cows have increased by 17% in 2025 and 2026 YTD. This is driven by new processing facilities. The location of Kansas is central to the whole U.S., the temperature is pleasant, and the state has a favorable business climate. The increases added 41,000 cows in 2025 and 2026 YTD. The trend is for more cows.
Unlike other states, South Dakota has a long steady path of increases. Over the entire period in Chart V, the amount of milk cows has increased by 71%. There are large increases in new cheese plants which need additional milk. The state has a favorable agricultural policy and in most of the state, components are not priced from Federal Orders.
Michigan has consistently had the highest milk per cow of any state. With the addition of 18,000 new cows, there is significantly more milk available. Michigan State University is a leader in cow technology and management. The increase in milk cows in 2025 and 2026 YTD is 4%. The trend is for more cows.
New York state is a significant part of the Northeast Federal Milk Order. This Federal Order is unique in that de-pooling is very minimal. This provides a fair playing field for all farms in the Federal Order. Demand for milk has been increased with new processing facilities like “fairlife” milk. Milk production has increased by 3% in 2025 and 2026 YTD.
SUMMARY
The dairy industry in the U.S. is rapidly changing. The new processing plants require new milk herds strategically located, etc. There is too much milk for domestic consumption. When will supply and demand level this out? More changes are coming. To survive, there must be changes.
